I apologize in advance for stepping on Dr. Forrester's toes here, but I think the answer to your question is *both*. In systems terms, this is an example of a positive feedback loop where the output continually drives the input to higher levels. In psychological terms -- and bear in mind I'm no psychologist -- it's called *insanity*, the best definition of which I've heard is "performing the same actions repeatedly and expecting different results". One could apply this principle to our current Middle East policies just as easily.