Subject: Modeling the school dropout phenomenon

Posted by Steve Crowley on 12/18/2009
In Reply To:Modeling the school dropout phenomenon Posted by Richard Turnock on 12/18/2009

Message:

Excellent points. Presumably, the point of a model would be to explore and explain the idea of leverage points, the most effective places in the system to take action. You would have to build in enough complexity that you would be modeling the way things actually happen in a complex world, particularly in relation to whatever hypothetical leverage points you build in to the model. And then you'd have to calibrate and re-tune the model, making it behave the same way the real world behaves. And since dropping out is so individualized a response to life, you'd need to be able to include individual input parameters so you could identify those leverage points that are going to be strongest for a given set of personality or social factors. Or maybe, you would step back, and lump those individualized factors into a category, something like "meaningful personal connection with someone in the system." Now, there might be a leverage point.

My high school has just jumped up to about 290 students (large influx of refugee immigrants), although for a long time we've been around 220. In our economically and socially challenged community, we do have a pretty high dropout rate, and all I can say is that if we weren't doing everything we could to engage those borderline kids, to establish those connections, the rate would be double what it is. we'd be thrilled to get anywhere close to 4%, but keeping in mind that while that would be a victory for the system, it's still a tragedy for those who make up that 4%.

Steve Crowley