Subject: consequences of local markets

Posted by Bill Rathborne on 2/15/2009
In Reply To:consequences of local markets Posted by Bill Braun on 2/15/2009

Message:

This is an enormously important issue in all area of the globe. There is a growing, "eat only products grown within 100 miles of you", movement. Many restaurants are specializing in this approach as well.
The overriding concern is with the consumption of fossil fuels required to transport produce, and meat very long distances. There are also some who take the same approach to flowers in retail florists shops.

Bill Braun wrote: "I make the assumption that overall demand remains the same (no matter where they are grown and consumed, people are eating the same amount of fruits and vegetables)."

I do not think this is a valid assumption. I live in Canada where we "enjoy" a far too long and miserable - for some of us! - winter.
During winter virtually all the fresh fruits and vegetables are from very far away. The huge citrus growing areas in Florida provide Oranges and lemons. However, there are Chilean grapes and so on.
California's vast growing regions provide a wide variety also. I think it is safe to "assume" that the vast volumes produced in these regions could simply not be absorbed by the "local" market. These specialized growing areas have been created to cater to areas where they simply cannot be cultivated locally due to climate. The economic consequences to the growing areas would be very significant.

There are many "developing world" nations that survive on their produce export markets primarily to "first world" countries - such as bananas and cut-flowers - that would suffer dramatic economic damage if there was a significant "eat locally" movement in the developed world. I am old enough to remember the days when we - in the frozen north - looked forward to the return of fresh fruits and vegetables with early summer. One can easily imagine the winter diet based on ONLY locally produced products in the northern US, Canada, much of Europe, etc. A winter diet of preserved tubers is adding insult to injury!

I agree with Bill that the "adjustments" would be significant and wide ranging. However, consistent with a goal to live within the carrying capacity of the planet, without fossil fuels, the "standard of living"
will likely become much, much simpler and viewed as significantly diminished by many. And there will be a lot fewer of us.

I have been constantly challenged by trying to envision what the new post-recession/depression world will be like. I have a hard time believing that the world still has the option, whether we, and our political masters, want to admit it or not, that we just have to return to "business as usual". How the world will "morpf" to a new and as yet undefined "new order" is beyond my limited imagination.

Modeling, in an SD way, where we have been and how we transition to a new and truly sustainable future is a challenge of course, and I suspect it would yield as many "politically unacceptable" answers as Limits to Growth did. Casandras are still in the minority!

Bill

Follow Ups:

consequences of local markets - Bill Braun 2/15/2009 
consequences of local markets - Bill Rathborne 2/15/2009