Subject: System Dynamics

Posted by Richard Turnock on 10/13/2009

Message:

The late historian Daniel Boorstin once said, “The greatest obstacle to discovery is not ignorance - it is the illusion of knowledge.” This quote is sometimes shortened or changed and used by others.

At the Oregon Health Sciences University (OHSU) in Portland they have carved a shorter version into a waist-high stone wall. When I saw it two weeks ago for the first time, I thought of System Dynamics. For me using dynamic modeling, where I have to search for the equations and data in the literature to build a model, means I’m discovering how feedback loops work in the real world. When I’m under the illusion that I know how a system works I’m quickly embarrassed when I try to predict an outcome and something else happens. Then I’m back to discovery again when I add another feedback loop to my model to make it more useful but never able to predict with 100% accuracy.
How useful is dynamic modeling for prediction?

Starting in about 1958 my parents had a little metal thing hanging on the wall that said,
“It’s what you learn after you know it all that counts.”
Anonymous

Richard

Follow Ups:

System Dynamics - Richard Turnock 10/15/2009 
System Dynamics - Bill Braun 10/16/2009
System Dynamics - Bill Braun 10/14/2009 
System Dynamics - Sang-Don Lee 10/14/2009
System Dynamics - Tony Phuah 10/16/2009
System Dynamics - Armando Córdova Olivieri 10/14/2009
System Dynamics - Sharon Villines 10/14/2009
System Dynamics - Greg Wierzbicki 10/14/2009